[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (14 July 23) issued 0122 UT on 14 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 14 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (07 JULY - 13 JULY)
Date     07    08    09    10    11    12    13
10cm    161   161   179   191   214   193   203
AFr      16     6     4     6     8     6  (  6)
Aaus     13     2     1     3     3     3  (  4)
T        96    85    82    82    86    96   100

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

07 Jul 
Solar:        R1, with an M4.0 at 0629UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

08 Jul 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

09 Jul 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

10 Jul 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.3 at 0356UT, and an M1.4 at 
              2218UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 Jul 
Solar:        R2, with an M1.4 at 2218UT, an M2.0 at 1435UT, 
              an M1.1 at 1612UT, an M6.8 at 1808UT, an M1.0 at 
              1929UT, and an M5.8 at 2215UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 Jul 
Solar:        R2, with an M5.8 at 2215UT, an M1.3 at 0445UT, 
              an M1.3 at 0514UT, and an M6.9 at 0855UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

13 Jul 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.1 at 1920UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 13 Jul, a weak (10nT) impulse 
was observed at 1649UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (14 JULY - 20 JULY)
Solar: 
R1-R2 class activity, with a chance of R3 is expected for 
the week due to AR3372 which has been producing M-class 
flares consistently.

Geomagnetic:  
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 14-Jul. G1-G2
activity is expected on 15-Jul and G0-G1 activity is 
expected on 16-Jul due to an anticipated impact from a
CME first observed on 11-Jul. G0 conditions are expected
over 17-20 Jul.

Frequencies:  
Mild depressions may be observed on 16-17 Jul, especially
at high latitudes, due to geomagnetic activity on 15-16 Jul.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values on other 
days. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au