[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (27 January 23) issued 0059 UT on 27 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 27 11:59:30 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED ON 27 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
1. SUMMARY (20 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY)
Date 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
10cm 218 209 199 189 180 172 151
AFr 4 11 7 5 3 5 ( 12)
Aaus 4 10 6 8 4 6 ( 8)
T 111 125 130 124 143 142 132
Solar: Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic: Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies: Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies
20 Jan
Solar: R0
Geomagnetic: G0
Frequencies:
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
21 Jan
Solar: R0
Geomagnetic: G0
Frequencies:
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
22 Jan
Solar: R1, with an M1.1 at 1226UT, and an M1.6 at
1702UT
Geomagnetic: G0
Frequencies:
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
23 Jan
Solar: R0
Geomagnetic: G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 23 Jan, a weak (13nT) impulse
was observed at 0340UT.
Frequencies:
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
24 Jan
Solar: R0
Geomagnetic: G0
Frequencies:
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day and night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
25 Jan
Solar: R1, with an M4.7 at 1011UT, an M1.4 at 1701UT,
and an M2.0 at 2236UT
Geomagnetic: G0
Frequencies:
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
26 Jan
Solar: R1, with an M2.8 at 1306UT
Geomagnetic: G0
Frequencies:
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
2. FORECAST (27 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY)
Solar:
R0-R1 conditions are expected on 27-Jan, R0 conditions, with a
chance of R1 are expected over 28-29 Jan, R0-R1 conditions are
expected over 30-Jan to 2-Feb due to the likely return, on 30-Jan,
of AR3181 or a similarly active sunspot region visible on STEREO-A
imagery which produced a large CME on 26-Jan.
Geomagnetic:
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected for 27-29 Jan, G0 conditions,
with a chance of G1 are expected over 30-Jan to 2-Feb due to the
combined effects of high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial
coronal hole rotating towards a geoeffective position and the possibility
of geoeffective CMEs from an active sunspot region currently visible on
STEREO-A imagery which produced a large CME on 26-Jan and is expected
to arrive on the solar disk on 30-Jan.
Frequencies:
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
Sporadic E is possible during local night, affecting lower
frequencies.
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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