[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (10 February 23) issued 0048 UT on 10 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 10 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (03 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY)
Date     03    04    05    06    07    08    09
10cm    135   139   144   158   185   192   215
AFr       6     5     3    13    12    12  ( 14)
Aaus      9     3     3    13    15    13  ( ??)
T       127   132   120   118    85    91    76

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

03 Feb 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

04 Feb 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
      Enhanced by 50% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

05 Feb 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

06 Feb 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

07 Feb 
Solar:        R2, with an M1.0 at 1354UT, an M1.6 at 2007UT, 
              an M3.9 at 2258UT, and an M6.4 at 2307UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

08 Feb 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.1 at 0253UT, an M1.6 at 1603UT, 
              an M1.5 at 2012UT, an M1.7 at 2113UT, and
              an M1.7 at 2136UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

09 Feb 
Solar:        R1, with an M3.1 at 0310UT, an M1.1 at 0717UT, 
              an M2.8 at 0907UT, an M1.5 at 1456UT, an M1.4
              at 1525UT, and an M1.8 at 1842UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (10 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY)
Solar: 
R1-R2 level flare activity is expected for the duration of the
week. AR3213 and AR3217 are large and complex sunspot regions
which have a history of producing M-class flares. AR3213 will
remain on the solar disk until 13-Feb, whilst AR3217 will remain
on the solar disk until 17-Feb. AR3217 has produced several east
directed CMEs accompanying its flaring activity, a chance exists
for significant geoeffective CMEs from AR3217 as it rotates into
a geoeffective position.

Geomagnetic:  
G0 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected on
10-Feb due to waning coronal hole high speed wind stream effects
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected for the rest of the week,
with a chance of G1 on 12-14 Feb due to possible coronal hole 
high speed wind stream effects. There is a chance of geoeffective
CME activity throughout the week from either AR3213 or AR3217 once 
it reaches a geoeffective position.

Frequencies:  
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% 
enhanced over the week. Depressions are possible on 10-Feb and 
12-14 Feb due to possible geomagnetic activity, particularly at
higher latitudes. Depressions are also possible if geoeffective
CME activity occurs from either AR3213 or AR3217 once it reaches 
a geoeffective position.


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au