[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (11 August 23) issued 0016 UT on 11 Aug 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 11 AUGUST 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (04 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST)
Date     04    05    06    07    08    09    10
10cm    171   176   174   170   159   153   156
AFr       0    24     4    11     7     8  (  7)
Aaus      8    17     1     8     3     5  ( ??)
T       107   133   105   110   113   106   105

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

04 Aug 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.9 at 0425UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

05 Aug 
Solar:        R3, with an M1.6 at 0723UT, an M2.1 at 0936UT, 
              and an X1.6 at 2222UT
Geomagnetic:  G3
In the BOM magnetometer data for 05 Aug, a weak (15nT) impulse 
was observed at 0254UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

06 Aug 
Solar:        R2, with an M5.5 at 1840UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

07 Aug 
Solar:        R3, with an M2.4 at 0442UT, an M1.0 at 1615UT, 
              an M1.4 at 1951UT, and an X1.5 at 2046UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

08 Aug 
Solar:        R1, with an M3.6 at 0931UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

09 Aug 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

10 Aug 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (11 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST)
Solar: 
R0-R1 levels, with a chance of R2 expected throughout the week.

Geomagnetic:  
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected throughout the week,
with a chance of G1 on 14-Aug due to coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects. However, there is always the possibility 
of CME activity during the week.

Frequencies:  
MUFs near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced throughout the week.


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au