[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (07 April 23) issued 0100 UT on 07 Apr 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 07 APRIL 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (31 MARCH - 06 APRIL)
Date     31    01    02    03    04    05    06
10cm    129   125   127   134   136   137   137
AFr      17     0    13    11    10     9  ( 10)
Aaus     10     9     6    10     8     7  (  9)
T       121   137   129   138   128   130   124

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

31 Mar 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40% 
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35-65%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25-35%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15-20% (Hobart, Canberra) to 15% enhanced 
      during local day (Perth).
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day, with frequent 
      absorption observed at Mawson.

01 Apr 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25-75%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30-45%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25-30%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Absorption observed at times at Mawson.

02 Apr 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30% during local day.   
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35-85% 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Absorption observed at Mawson.

03 Apr 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45-70%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20-40% during local night and after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25-30% during local night and after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20-30% during local night and after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

04 Apr 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20-25% during local night and after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15-25% during local night and after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

05 Apr 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45-60% 
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30% 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25-40% 
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

06 Apr 
Solar:        Moderate, with an M3.0 at 0554UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-35%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25-30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-25%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      
Comment: 
Southern region HF conditions degraded on 31-Mar at Hobart 
and Canberra associated with mild coronal hole wind stream 
induced geomagnetic activity. Generally good HF conditions 
with enhanced MUFs and mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions, 
for remainder of the week particularly for the northern 
Australian region. Night spread F occasionally observed at
Hobart and Perth.
 
2. FORECAST (07 APRIL - 13 APRIL)
Solar: 
Solar activity is expected to be mostly at R0 levels, with
the chance of isolated R1-R2 events during the week due to
a new solar region that has recently rotated onto the solar 
disk over the south east solar limb. This region produced
the M3 flare on 06-Apr.

Geomagnetic:  
G0-G1 11-Apr. G0 on other days.

Frequencies:  
MUFs near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
Southern Australian region MUFs may be depressed by 15%
late on 11-Apr/early 12-Apr if mild geomagnetic activity 
eventuates on 11-Apr. Isolated shortwave fadeouts possible.



For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au