[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (14 October 22) issued 0043 UT on 14 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 14 11:43:29 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED ON 14 OCTOBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
1. SUMMARY (07 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER)
Date 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
10cm 160 157 161 163 150 141 130
AFr 12 10 18 8 7 4 ( 5)
Aaus 10 9 14 6 3 4 ( 3)
T 90 108 101 88 104 112 113
Solar: Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic: Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies: Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies
07 Oct
Solar: R1, with an M1.0 at 1445UT
Geomagnetic: G0
Frequencies:
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-50%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-20%.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
08 Oct
Solar: R0
Geomagnetic: G0
Frequencies:
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30-45%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25-30%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20-45%.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15-20%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
09 Oct
Solar: R0
Geomagnetic: G0
Frequencies:
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-45%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15%.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-20%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
10 Oct
Solar: R1, with an M1.1 at 0047UT, and an M2.4 at
1628UT
Geomagnetic: G0
Frequencies:
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
11 Oct
Solar: R1, with an M4.0 at 0842UT, and an M1.5 at
1052UT
Geomagnetic: G0
Frequencies:
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
12 Oct
Solar: R1
Geomagnetic: G0
Frequencies:
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25-65%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-25%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
13 Oct
Solar: R1, with an M1.5 at 0020UT
Geomagnetic: G0
Frequencies:
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% to 35%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% to 50%.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% to 25%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
2. FORECAST (14 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER)
Solar:
R0 with chance of isolated low-level R1 flares on 14-15 Oct.
Geomagnetic:
Mostly G0 conditions expected with a chance of G1 on 15-Oct and
17-Oct due to the possible arrivals of two minor CME's first
observed on 11 and 13-Oct, respectively.
Frequencies:
MUFs may be enhanced by 15-30% declining to near predicted
monthly values toward end of week. Slight chance of mildly
degraded HF conditions during local night hours in mid-high
latitudes on 15-Oct and 17-Oct.
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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