[Ips-wsgr] SWS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (04 February 22) issued 0153 UT on 04 Feb 2022

Fri Feb 4 12:53:02 EST 2022

SUBJ: SWS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 04 FEBRUARY 2022, BY Space Weather Services,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (28 JANUARY - 03 FEBRUARY)
Date     28    29    30    31    01    02    03
10cm    113   125   130   130   129   128   127
AFr       7    14     8     8     5     9  ( 26)
Aaus      4     7     6     5     5     7  ( 20)
T        71    65    61    70    61    77    70

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

28 Jan 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

29 Jan 
Solar:        Moderate, with an M1.0 at 2347UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
  Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

30 Jan 
Solar:        Moderate, with an M1.0 at 2347UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

31 Jan 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

01 Feb 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet
In the SWS magnetometer data for 01 Feb, a weak (11nT) impulse 
was observed at 2222UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

02 Feb 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 115% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

03 Feb 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm (regional ASWAS G1 - two sites reached G2)

Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Comment:
On 03 February 2022 the solar wind north-south component (Bz) of the
interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) began to gradually drift increasingly southward from around 03UT to 
reach -18nT at around 07UT, then return to mildly northward orientation. The
cause 
of this is unclear, it may be a rotating magnetic structure in the solar wind
that occurred
on 19 Dec, and 14 Jan, but if so it has occurred earlier than 27 day patterns
would suggest, 
or perhaps from a recent minor southwest directed coronal mass ejection, but no
clear 
discontinuity in solar wind parameters is evident.

2. FORECAST (04 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY)
Solar: 
Isolated moderate activity (ASAWAS R1-R2) first half of the week, then low.

Geomagnetic:  
Unsettled to active on 06 Feb, then quiet to unsettled conditions.

Frequencies:  
MUFs near to 15% above predicted monthly values first half of week then
near predicted monthly values. Isolated fadeouts possible early in the week.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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