[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (22 November 13) issued 0155 UT on 22 Nov 2013

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 22 NOVEMBER 2013, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (15 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER)
Date     15    16    17    18    19    20    21
10cm    178   175   177   163   153   147   141
AFr       6    11     5     2     3     3 (  3)
Aaus      7     8     5     2     3     4 (  1)
T       124   104   136   120   137   150   128

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

15 Nov 
Solar:        Moderate, with an M1.0 at 0230UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled
Frequencies:  
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

16 Nov 
Solar:        Moderate, with an M1.2 at 0454UT, and an M1.6 at 
              0750UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled
Frequencies:  
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

17 Nov 
Solar:        Moderate, with an M1.0 at 0510UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet
Frequencies:  
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

18 Nov 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

19 Nov 
Solar:        High, with an X1.0 at 1026UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

20 Nov 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available but probably strongly enhanced.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-45% for most of the day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 10-35% for most of the day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
      Enhanced up to 50% during some hours. 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 10-60% at most stations.

21 Nov 
Solar:        Moderate, with an M1.2 at 1114UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available but probably enhanced.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 5-40% for most of the day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 10-35% for most of the day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-50% for most of the day
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20-60% for most of the day. 

 
2. FORECAST (22 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER)
Solar: 
Low to moderate activity early in week. Mostly C class flares with a 
small chance of an M class flare. No X class flares are currently expected. 

Geomagnetic:  
Quiet to unsettled conditions. No geomagnetic storms are currently expected. 
Bright auroras visible from Southern Australia are unlikely. 

Frequencies:  
MUFs enhanced, especially at higher latitudes, but gradually trending 
back toward predicted monthly values throughout the week.


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.