[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (06 July 12) issued 0213 UT on 06 Jul 2012

Fri Jul 6 12:14:00 EST 2012

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 06 JULY 2012, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (29 JUNE - 05 JULY)
Date     29    30    01    02    03    04    05
10cm    117   124   133   166   146   163   165
AFr       6    21    20    18    11    11 (  9)
Aaus      2    18    12    14     8     6 (  9)
T        53    65    63    64    61    63    63

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

29 Jun 
Solar:        Moderate, with an M2.2 at 0920UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

30 Jun 
Solar:        Moderate, with an M1.6 at 1832UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to minor storm
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

01 Jul 
Solar:        Moderate, with an M2.9 at 1918UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled with active periods
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Deprebriefly depressed after local dawn on 8 Jul
MUFs near predicted monthly values on other days.ssed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

02 Jul 
Solar:        High, with an M1.1 at 0035UT, an M5.6 at 1052UT, 
              an M3.8 at 2007UT, and an M2.0 at 2356UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to active
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly 20-35% enhanced with near predicted monthly values
      00-04, 12-14 UT. Depressions 20-35% 20-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly 15-25% depressed.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values until 09 UT, then depressed
      15-30% at Darwin. Mostly near predicted monthly values at
      Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional depressions
      to 25%. Depressions to 35% at Hobart and Christchurch from
      10 UT onwards.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Weak ionosphere. Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.

03 Jul 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to unsettled. Increased activity 09-12 UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      09-15, 22-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      12-13, 15-16, 22-23 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25% 04-07,
      10-11, 16-18 and 21 UT at Darwin
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed during local
      day. Depressed to 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%.

04 Jul 
Solar:        High, with an M2.3 at 0437UT, an M5.3 at 0955UT, 
              an M2.3 at 1225UT, an M1.3 at 1440UT, an M1.8 at 
              1640UT, an M4.6 at 2209UT, and an M1.2 at 2355UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to unsettled
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced
      01-13, 20 UT. Depressed 15-30% 00, 14-19, 21-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly 15-25% depressed.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
      25% 06-07, 11, 15-18 UT at Darwin, and 01-07 UT at
      Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Night time
      depressions to 25%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 30%.

05 Jul 
Solar:        High, with an M1.1 at 0038UT, an M2.4 at 0110UT,
              an M1.0 at 0131UT, an M2.2 at 0242UT, an M1.0 at
              0332UT, an M4.7 at 0336UT, an M1.1 at 0659UT, an
              M1.3 at 0745UT, an M1.8 at 1048UT, an M6.2 at
              1144UT, an M1.2 at 1321UT, an M1.6 at 2014UT, and
              an M1.5 at 2142UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to unsettled with active periods 09-15 UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with 15-30%
      depressions 00, 12-20, 22-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with 15-25%
      depressions 00-06, 13-15 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with 15-30%
      depressions 05-06, 11-18 UT at Darwin. Depressions
      of 15-20%, 00, 03-07, 12-16 UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
      20%, mostly 01-09, 14-17 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.

2. FORECAST (06 JULY - 12 JULY)
Solar: Moderate activity possible most of the week.

Geomagnetic: Active beginning late 7 Jul or early 8 Jul to
9 Jul. Possible isolated minor storm periods on 8 Jul.
Mostly quiet to unsettled on other days.

Frequencies: Near predicted monthly values. Mild depressions
possible on 9 Jul. Short-wave fadeouts possible most of the
week.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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