[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (30 September 11)

Fri Sep 30 11:45:52 EST 2011

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 30 SEPTEMBER 2011, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (23 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER)
Date     23    24    25    26    27    28    29
10cm    158   190   169   148   139   133   137
AFr       2     3     4    20    22    13  ( 15)
Aaus      2     4     5    27    18    13  ( 20)
T        86    88    93    88    59    78    65

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

23 Sep 
Solar:        Moderate, with an   M1.6 at 0200UT , and an   M1.6 at
2219UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to
      30%, 00, 08-18 UT, and depressions to 24% 20-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to
      30%, 02-06 and 18-23 UT, and enhancements to 55%,
      07-10 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to
      25%, 12-15 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 25%
      from about 10 UT onward.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
      Depressions to 35% at Mawson 00-02 UT.

24 Sep 
Solar:        High, with an   M1.6 at 2219UT , an   M1.9 at 2357UT ,
an   X1.9 at 0940UT , an   M7.1 at 1322UT , an   M1.7 at 1701UT , an  
M3.1 at 1726UT , an   M3.0 at 1926UT , an   M5.8 at 2036UT , and an  
M1.2 at 2129UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

25 Sep 
Solar:        High, with an   M1.0 at 2359UT , an   M4.5 at 0233UT ,
an   M7.4 at 0451UT , an   M1.3 at 0706UT , an   M3.1 at 0849UT , an  
M1.5 at 0937UT , an   M3.7 at 1533UT , an   M1.1 at 1619UT , and an  
M2.2 at 1658UT
Geomagnetic:  Mostly quiet. 

Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 30%
      12-17 UT. No data 18-22 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25% 12-17UT.
      Enhanced to 30% 05-10 and 19-22UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      16-18UT at Darwin. Enhancements to 30% 12-15 UT at
      Darwin and 00-01, 09-13, 21-23UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Weak ionosphere at high latitudes. Mostly near predicted
      monthly values to 40% enhanced. Proton event in progress,
      increased absorption observed.

26 Sep 
Solar:        Moderate, with an   M4.0 at 0508UT , and an   M2.6 at
1446UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Major Storm 

Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

27 Sep 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Variable enhancements/depressions during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Generally weak ionosphere due to proton event

28 Sep 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

29 Sep 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 

Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

2. FORECAST (30 SEPTEMBER - 06 OCTOBER)
Solar: 
Moderate flare activty, due to possible recurrent region.

Geomagnetic:  
Quiet to unsettled conditions.

Frequencies:  
MUFs near predicted monthly values.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/1/2/1.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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