[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (18 February 11)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 18 FEBRUARY 2011, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (11 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY)
Date     11    12    13    14    15    16    17
10cm     91    96   107   113   113   114   111
AFr       3     2     1     6     4     1    (8)
Aaus      5     5     3    13    10     3    (4)
T        36    42    41    51    46    44    48

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

11 Feb 
Solar:        Very Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 Feb 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

13 Feb 
Solar:        High, with an   M6.6 at 1738UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 Feb 
Solar:        Moderate, with an   M2.2 at 1726UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm. A weak (17nT) 
impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data at
1556UT on 14 Feb.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

15 Feb 
Solar:        High, with an   X2.3 at 0156UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

16 Feb 
Solar:        Moderate, with an M1.0 at 0140UT, M1.1 at 0745UT
and an M1.6 at 1425UT.
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

17 Feb 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (18 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY)
Solar: Low to Moderate activity for the forecast week. Region 1158
has the potential for further C-class events and possible M-class.

Geomagnetic: Active periods expected on 18Feb. Unsettled to Active
conditions possible for 21Feb-24Feb due to coronal hole effects. 
Quiet to Unsettled on other days.

Frequencies:  Depressed MUFs 10%-20% on 18 Feb. Possible depressed 
MUFs for 19Feb-20Feb and 22Feb-23Feb with otherwise near predicted
monthly values on other days. Slight chance of SWFs occuring 
early in the week. 

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/1/2/1.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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