[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (08 December 06)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 08 DECEMBER 2006, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (01 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER)
Date     01    02    03    04    05    06    07
10cm     84    87    87    92   102   103    96
AFr       3     1     2     1     2    15   (20)
Aaus      6     4     6     2     5    19   (17)
T       -27    10     6    17    14    18     4

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

01 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Depressed by 20% during local day,
     Depressed by 20% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 30% during local day,
     Depressed by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Depressed by 30% during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

02 Dec 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

03 Dec 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Mostly near predicted monthly values at all latitudes.
   Depressions to 30% observed at Vanimo and Port Moresby
   around 10 to 13 UT.

04 Dec 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

05 Dec 
Solar:        high, with an   M1.8 at 0803UT , and an   X9.1 at 1035UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressions and degradations.

06 Dec 
Solar:        high, with an   M1.2 at 0228UT , an   M6.0 at 0825UT ,
and an   X6.6 at 1847UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

07 Dec 
Solar:        moderate, with an   M2.0 at 1916UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

 
2. FORECAST (08 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER)
Solar: 
Moderate to High solar activity expected for the next week if
active region 930 maintains its current size, configuration and 
magnetic complexity. 

Geomagnetic:  
Active conditions expected early in the forecast period with 
possible isolated minor storm periods due to coronal hole effects
and possible glancing blows from recent X class flares. Quiet to
Unsettled conditions possible for 11Dec onwards if there are no
further M or X class flares that could result in glancing blow CME's.

Frequencies:  
Briefly depressed after local dawn on 10 Dec, depressed 15% on 8Dec
to 9Dec. MUFs near predicted monthly values on other days.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au/1/2/1.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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