[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (21 January 05)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 21 JANUARY 2005, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (14 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY)
Date     14    15    16    17    18    19    20
10cm    130   145   145   138   124   133   123
AFr      11    11    10    27    35    31 ( 12)
Aaus     10    18    16    42    55    29 ( 14)
T        47    75    68    40    46     4    60

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

14 Jan 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 1411UT, an M1 at 1606UT, and an M1 at
1757UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 20% during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

15 Jan 
Solar:        high, with an X1.2/1B at 0043UT, an M1/2N at 0416UT, 
an M8.4/2N at 0431UT, an M8.6/SF at 0638UT, an M1/SF at 1148UT, 
an M3/SF at 1423UT, and an X2.6/3B at 2302UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 25% during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

16 Jan 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/1N at 2203UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

17 Jan 
Solar:        high, with an M2 at 0321UT, and an X3.8/2F at 0952UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Major Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

18 Jan 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 1132UT, and an M4/2N at 1551UT
Geomagnetic:  Active to Severe Storm Levels 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

19 Jan 
Solar:        high, with an M6.7/2N at 0731UT, an X1.3 at 0822UT, 
an M2/1N at 1024UT, and an M1/2F at 1540UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

20 Jan 
Solar:        high, with an   X7.1 at 0701UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

COMMENT: Very depressed regional MUFs observed 19 Jan.
         Coronal mass ejection from X7 flare believed enroute
	 to Earth. Some storm activity possible 23 Jan.
 
2. FORECAST (21 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY)
Solar: Moderate 21-22 Jan, then low.

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet with Minor storm intervals possible 23 Jan.
              Coronal hole wind stream induced activity expected 24-25 Jan.

Frequencies:  depressed 15-20% on late 23-24-Jan, minor depression
possible 25-26 Jan,  otherwise MUFs near normal. SWFs possible
early in week.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


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