[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (17 September 04)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 17 SEPTEMBER 2004, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (10 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER)
Date     10    11    12    13    14    15    16
10cm    130   116   115   118   115   110   108
AFr       1     1     1     5    17     9 ( 20)
Aaus      1     2     3     7    25    11 ( 18)
T        66    64    66    63    68    45    49

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

10 Sep 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 10-20% over the UT day.


11 Sep 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20-40% over the UT day.


12 Sep 
Solar:        moderate, with an M4/2N at 0056UT, and an M3/SN at 0139UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


13 Sep 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
A weak (28nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data at
2002UT on 13 Sep.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 10-20% over most of the UT day. 
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


14 Sep 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1F at 0930UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
A weak (15nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data at
1523UT on 14 Sep.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


15 Sep 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
near predicted monthly values


16 Sep 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night,
      Depressed 15-30% following local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


 
2. FORECAST (17 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER)
Solar: Low to moderate.

Geomagnetic:  Active intervals possible for 17 September, otherwise
mostly unsettled to quiet.

Frequencies:  Mild depressions possible after local dawn on 17-Sep for
equatorial latitudes, otherwise MUFs mostly near normal.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


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