[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (30 January 04)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 30 JANUARY 2004, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (23 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY)
Date     23    24    25    26    27    28    29
10cm    115   108   102    98    94    89    87
AFr      21    10    17     9    13    24 ( 10)
Aaus     30    13    21    18    17    16 (  7)
T       -22    50    11   -11    52    73    58

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

23 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
A weak (11nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter 
data at 1455UT on 23 Jan.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night and 
      after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

24 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

25 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night
      and after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


26 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


27 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


28 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


29 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

COMMENT: Strong ionospheric depression observed 23 Jan 
following geomagnetic storm activity induced by arrival 
of coronal mass ejection.
 
2. FORECAST (30 JANUARY - 05 FEBRUARY)
Solar: Low until 02 Feb. Chance for moderate activity second
       half of week due to possible return of previously active
       solar region 537.

Geomagnetic:  Mostly unsettled to active with minor storm intervals possible.
              Coronal hole wind stream induced activity generally expected this week.
	      Induced activity levels may be weaker than previous solar rotations.

Frequencies:  Depressed 15% briefly after local dawn southern Aus/NZ region for 
	      most of week, otherwise MUFs near normal. No shortwave fadeouts
	      expected first half of week. Increasing chance of fadeouts
	      second half of week due to possible return of an active solar
	      region.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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