[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (27 February 04)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 27 FEBRUARY 2004, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (20 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY)
Date     20    21    22    23    24    25    26
10cm     95    98   104   104   106   119   121
AFr       2     4     7     9     9     3    (4)
Aaus      3     7     8     8     9     6    (3)
T        65    71    49    57    60    53    54

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

20 Feb 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


21 Feb 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


22 Feb 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed 10-15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


23 Feb 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


24 Feb 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


25 Feb 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


26 Feb 
Solar:        High, with an  X1/2N at 0203UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


 
2. FORECAST (27 FEBRUARY - 04 MARCH)
Solar:        Moderate to high early in week. 

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with active intervals possible.
	      Active periods possible 01-04 Mar due to recurrent coronal
	      hole wind stream. 

Frequencies:  Depressed 15 to 20% on 01-Mar, depressed 15 to 20% on 03-04 
              Mar, otherwise MUFs near normal. SWFs probable early
              in week.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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