[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (20 August 04)
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 20 12:18:16 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED ON 20 AUGUST 2004, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SUMMARY (13 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST)
Date 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
10cm 149 149 139 134 135 140 121
AFr 5 6 3 5 9 10 ( 8)
Aaus 5 6 1 3 9 6 ( 4)
T 56 68 68 68 80 75 62
Solar: Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic: Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies: Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies
13 Aug
Solar: high, with an M1/1F at 0729UT, an M1/1F at 1209UT,
an X1.0/1N at 1812UT, an M3 at 2343UT, and an M2/SF at
2350UT
Geomagnetic: Quiet
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
14 Aug
Solar: high, with an M2/SF at 0414UT, an M7.4/2N at 0544UT,
an M2/1F at 0756UT, an M3/1F at 1007UT, an M5.6/2N at
1343UT, an M1 at 1818UT, and an M1 at 2016UT
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Unsettled
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
15 Aug
Solar: high, with an M1/SF at 0506UT, an M1/SF at 0600UT,
an M2/2F at 1132UT, an M9.4/1N at 1241UT, and an M1 at
1845UT
Geomagnetic: Quiet
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.
16 Aug
Solar: moderate, with an M1/SF at 0347UT, and an M1/1F at
2244UT
Geomagnetic: Quiet
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
17 Aug
Solar: moderate, with an M1/SF at 0506UT, an M2 at 1937UT,
an M1 at 2121UT, and an M1 at 2228UT
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Active
Frequencies:
about 20% above predicted monthly values
18 Aug
Solar: high, with an X1.8/SF at 1740UT
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Unsettled
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by upto 25% with periods of minor
to moderate depressions and degradations.
19 Aug
Solar: moderate, with an M3.0 at 0701UT , and an M2.1 at
1351UT
Geomagnetic: Quiet to unsettled
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by upto 40% with periods of depressions
and degradations.
2. FORECAST (20 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST)
Solar: Low to Moderate.
Geomagnetic: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with Active level
intervals possible.
Frequencies: minor depressions possible on 20 and 21 Aug.,
otherwise MUFs near normal. SWFs possible any
day in the week.
PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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