[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (24 October 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 24 OCTOBER 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (17 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER)
Date     17    18    19    20    21    22    23
10cm     99   109   120   135   152   154   183
AFr      20    15    22    20    28    20 (  8)
Aaus     19    18    21    16    25    21 (  9)
T        74    65    44    56    62    58    65

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

17 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

18 Oct 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

19 Oct 
Solar:  high, with an M1/1F at 0626UT, an X1.1/1N 
        at 1650UT, and an M1/SF at 1926UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15-20%.  Absorption and spread F 
      observed.

20 Oct 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 0722UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

21 Oct 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 0827UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Disturbed conditions. Macquire Island
      MUFs enhanced 30% early in UT day. Depressed
      30% after 20UT. Antartic mainland region 
      MUFs depressed 15-20% with spread F observed,
      and increased absorption observed.

22 Oct 
Solar: high, with an M3/SF at 0351UT, an M1 at 0844UT, 
an M1 at 0956UT, an M1/SN at 1511UT, an M1/SN at 1601UT, 
an M2 at 2330UT, an M9.9/SF at 2007UT, and an M2 at 2204UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Spread F and absorption observed.


23 Oct 
Solar: high, with an   M2.4 at 0241UT, an M3.2 at 0708UT,
an   X5.4 at 0835UT, an M1.0 at 1622UT, an X1.1 at 2004UT, 
and an M1.3 at 2232UT.
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.

COMMENT: Coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity
ended 22 Oct. This extended period of moderate 
geomagnetic activity resulted in lower than normal
MUFs for southern Aus/NZ region 15-22 Oct. Two 
large and active solar regions have dramatically
increased solar activity over past few days. Several
of these flare events had associated coronal mass 
ejections which are currently en-route to the Earth.
 
2. FORECAST (24 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER)
Solar: high to very high, M and X class flares expected.

Geomagnetic:  Sudden storm commencements expected first half 
	      24 Oct and first half 26 Oct due to near full halo
	      and full halo coronal mass ejections. There is
	      a mild 27 day recurrent pattern for 30 Oct 
	      (unsettled to active conditions).

Frequencies:  MUFs are initially expected to be near to above
	      normal on 24 Oct, then becoming depressed 30% on 
	      late 24-Oct following anticipated geomagnetic storm
	      commencement. Further depressed conditions are likely
	      on 25th and 26 Oct due to expected arrival of 
	      second mass ejection. 
	      
	      Frequent shortwave fadeouts can be expected on daylight 
	      HF circuits.

PLEASE NOTE: flares and mass ejections cannot be forecast. Please
check IPS Daily Report for updates on further mass ejection activity
during the coming week. 


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