[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (23 May 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 23 MAY 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (16 MAY - 22 MAY)
Date     16    17    18    19    20    21    22
10cm    103   102   109   115   124   119   118
AFr       9     6     7     9     9    13 ( 25)
Aaus      8     7     7     8     9    15 ( 17)
T        70    72    63    83    82    80   101

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

16 May 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.


17 May 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30% over UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.


18 May 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15-20% during local night/dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced 10-30% above predicted monthly values 
      with widespread spread-F conditions observed.


19 May 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with isolated periods of
      disturbance.


20 May 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Minor depression during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with isolated periods of
      disturbance.


21 May 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


22 May 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      otherwise enhanced greater than 30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


 
2. FORECAST (23 MAY - 29 MAY)
Solar: Low

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with active intervals possible.

Frequencies:  Mostly near predicted monthly values with slight depressions
	      of 5-15% at times.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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