[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (02 May 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 02 MAY 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (25 APRIL - 01 MAY)
Date     25    26    27    28    29    30    01
10cm    144   144   154   152   155   154   149
AFr      19     9    11     9    13    34 ( 35)
Aaus     20    13    11    11    16    25 ( 25)
T        75    78    78   100    94   101    96

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

25 Apr 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 0540UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of significant depressions and
      degradations.

26 Apr 
Solar:        high, with an M2/SF at 0058UT, an M2/SN at 0306UT, an M7.0 at
0807UT, and an M2 at 2340UT
Geomagnetic:  Mostly quiet to unsettled with occasional active 
              periods. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

27 Apr 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 1532UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressions and degradations.

28 Apr 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Mostly quiet to active with isolated minor storm 
              periods. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day 
      with periods of depressions and degradations.

29 Apr 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1F at 0459UT
Geomagnetic:  Mostly quiet to active with isolated minor storm 
              periods. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of deppressions and degradations. 

30 Apr 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
      Some spread F observed.

01 May 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.

COMMENT: Disturbed conditions observed late in week due to
coronal hole high speed wind stream.
 
2. FORECAST (02 MAY - 08 MAY)
Solar: Moderate, chance for high activity. A large solar region
(region number 349) is currently located near the middle of the solar disk. 
If this region continues to develop magnetic complexity flare activity
is likely. Two other solar regions, 345 to the south of 349,
and 344 in the north west quadrant show some flare potential as well.
Although region 344 will rotate offdisk in a few days.
Coronal holes are now a regular feature of the solar disk.
and another coronal hole is visible in the eastern
solar hemisphere. 

Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to active 02 - 03 May. Isolated minor storm
 periods possible on 02 May. Further active periods are again
 expected 06-07 May due to the coronal hole currently in the eastern
 solar hemisphere. Unsettled conditions are expected on other days.
 Note that there is a chance for CME induced storm activity this week.

Frequencies:  mildy depressed after local dawn on 02-03May, and 06-07 May,
otherwise near to 15% above normal. SWFs may be experienced dependant
on solar region development.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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