[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (04 July 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 04 JULY 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (27 JUNE - 03 JULY)
Date     27    28    29    30    01    02    03
10cm    124   124   127   128   131   135   132
AFr      21    30    14    14    14    11 ( 14)
Aaus     19    23    18    15     7     9 ( 11)
T        92    85    78    75    79    72    67

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

27 Jun 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Spread F observed local night hours.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
      Some spreead F observed.

28 Jun 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
      Spread F observed local night at Hobart.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.

29 Jun 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.

30 Jun 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Spread F observed local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.

01 Jul 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.

02 Jul 
Solar:        moderate, with an M3/1F at 0728UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

03 Jul 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

COMMENT: Coronal hole high speed wind stream induced activity 
observed early in week. The previously active solar region
mentioned in last week's report has returned to the solar
disk. This region has been on disk for 7 days and has only 
produced a single M class event (the M3 on 02 Jul). Some
magnetic complexity in the trailer spots of this region
has been reported and further M class  flares are possible,
but activity levels seem much reduced when compared to previous
solar disk transit (then as solar region 375).
 
2. FORECAST (04 JULY - 10 JULY)
Solar: Moderate, Isolated M class flare activity possible.

Geomagnetic:  Active, with chance of minor storm periods 04-07 July
due to yet another coronal hole high speed wind stream. Unsettled
conditions then expected to end of week (Another recurrent pattern
is probable starting around 12 July).

Frequencies:  mildy depressed (15%) after local dawn and degraded local night HF 
conditions during interval 04-06Jul, particularly southern Aus/NZ region.
SWFs probable this week.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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