[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (31 January 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 31 JANUARY 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (24 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY)
Date     24    25    26    27    28    29    30
10cm    130   129   125   121   126   124   121
AFr      13    19    12     5     9     9 ( 18)
Aaus     19    20    17    14    11    16 ( 22)
T       118   108    87    82   112   125    97

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

24 Jan 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1N at 0327UT
Geomagnetic:  Mostly unsettled to active with isolated periods 
              of minor storm. 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with short periods
      of minor degradations and depressions.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
      periods of depressions and degradations. 


25 Jan 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Mostly unsettled to active with isolated periods 
              of minor storm. 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressoins and degradations.


26 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Mostly quiet to active. 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressions and degradations.


27 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressins and degradations.


28 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Mostly quiet to unsettled. 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of degradations and depressions.


29 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 15%.


30 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15-30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15-30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 15-30% at
      times.


 
2. FORECAST (31 JANUARY - 06 FEBRUARY)
Solar: Low

Geomagnetic:
	    31 Jan: Unsettled to active
	    1 Feb: Quiet to unsettled
	    2 Feb: Active to minor storm periods
	    3-6 Feb: Returning to quiet to unsettled

Frequencies:  Depressed 15-30% at times 31 Jan and 2 Feb,
	      otherwise MUFs near normal to enhanced.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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