[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (22 August 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 22 AUGUST 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (15 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST)
Date     15    16    17    18    19    20    21
10cm    131   127   119   116   117   112   119
AFr       9     7    10    46    18    12 ( 40)
Aaus      9     8    16    54    16    12 ( 33)
T        89    93    71    96    19    61    63

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

15 Aug 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced 30% early in UT day.

16 Aug 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

17 Aug 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

18 Aug 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Active to Severe Storm Levels 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15-30%.

19 Aug 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/1N at 0759UT, and an M2/2F at 1006UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      otherwise depressed by 10-20% at times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 45% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 10-20% to near predicted monthly values. 

20 Aug 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 55% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values during early
      hours of the UT day followed by periods
      of depressions and degradations. 

21 Aug 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to minor storm. Isolated short periods 
              of major storm. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with periods
      of depressions and degradations.
 
2. FORECAST (22 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST)
Solar: Low

Geomagnetic:  Mostly active with possibility of minor strom 
in the first half of the period. Mostly quiet to unsettled 
thereafter. 

Frequencies:  depressed upto 10% on 22, 23-Aug,  mildy 
depressed after local dawn on 24, 25-Aug, otherwise MUFs 
near normal. No SWFs.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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