[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (25 April 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 25 APRIL 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (18 APRIL - 24 APRIL)
Date     18    19    20    21    22    23    24
10cm    108   112   119   126   132   133   128
AFr      18    10    12    12    13    13 ( 20)
Aaus     14     9    13    17    19    12 ( 18)
T        80    74    84   106   105    90    81

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

18 Apr 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 1958UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

19 Apr 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      15-30% at times during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

20 Apr 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      15-30% at times during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.

21 Apr 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/1N at 1307UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      15-30% at times during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.

22 Apr 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values to
      depressed 15% at times during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      15% at times.

23 Apr 
Solar:        high, with an M5.1/1N at 0106UT, and an M2/1F at 1556UT
Geomagnetic:  Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods 
              observed. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 50% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressions and degradations.

24 Apr 
Solar:        moderate, with an  M3/1N at 1253UT 
Geomagnetic:  Mostly quiet to active with isolated minor storm 
              periods. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of mild to moderate depressions
      and degradations.

 
2. FORECAST (25 APRIL - 01 MAY)
Solar:	 Low to moderate

Geomagnetic:  Mostly unsettled to active with possibility of minor
		storm periods. 

Frequencies:  Periods of depressions of 5 to 15 % may be expected on most 
		days of this period. SWFs probable early in week.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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