[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (20 September 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 20 SEPTEMBER 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (13 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER)
Date     13    14    15    16    17    18    19
10cm    206   207   188   183   194   177   165
AFr       9     7     5     5    11    13 ( 18)
Aaus      7     7     7     6    10    14 ( 15)
T       140   138   152   152   157   134   129

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

13 Sep 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.

14 Sep 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 40% during local day,
     Enhanced by 65% during local night.
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 40% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

15 Sep 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
15 to 30% above predicted monthly values

16 Sep 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SN at 0310UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
15 to 30% above predicted monthly values

17 Sep 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
15 to 30% above predicted monthly values

18 Sep 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day with
      periods of degradations and depressions.

19 Sep 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
A weak (12nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 
0623UT on 19 Sep.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day
      with short periods of depressions.

2. FORECAST (20 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER)
Solar: Low to moderate
Geomagnetic:  Mostly quiet to unsettled with active intervals possible.

Frequencies:  Mildy depressed after local dawn on 24 and 25-Sep, 
otherwise MUFs near normal. SWFs probable early in week.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060