[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (06 September 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 06 SEPTEMBER 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (30 AUGUST - 05 SEPTEMBER)
Date     30    31    01    02    03    04    05
10cm    170   180   181   174   171   171   175
AFr       7     7    13     5     5    23 ( 10)
Aaus      8     9     9     9     7    24 (  9)
T       127   125   125   122   130   148   137

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

30 Aug 
Solar:        high, with an X1.5/SN at 1329UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day with
      some periods of degradations and 
      depressions.

31 Aug 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by upto 60%  with 
      some periods of depressions.

01 Sep 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by upto 40% with periods of 
      depressions and degradations.

02 Sep 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active 
              periods. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day with 
      periods of depressions and degradations.

03 Sep 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 0054UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day with short
      periods of mild depressions.

04 Sep 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F and absorption observed.

05 Sep 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

2. FORECAST (06 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER)
Solar: Moderate, posible return of previously active solar region 07 Sep.

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Unsettled with active conditions probable 07 Sep,
	      and active periods possible 08 Sep and 12 Sep.

Frequencies:  MUFs near normal. SWFs probable later in week.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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