[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (11 October 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 11 OCTOBER 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (04 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER)
Date     04    05    06    07    08    09    10
10cm    158   155   162   164   165   167   172
AFr      43    12     9    21    19     9 ( 10)
Aaus     33    19     8    22    17    12 ( 11)
T       101   103   109   128   108   132   120

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

04 Oct 
Solar:        high, with an M1/SF at 0043UT, an M4/1N at 0538UT, 
	      an M3/1N at 1105UT, an M1/1F at 1255UT, an M1/SF 
	      at 1711UT, and an M2/SF at 2243UT.
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Major Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 10-30% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 10-30% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.


05 Oct 
Solar:        high, with an M1 at 1046UT, and an M5.9/1F at 2100UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.


06 Oct 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/1N at 0451UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.


07 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.


08 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
              A weak (18nT) impulse was observed in the 
	      IPS magnetomter data at 1405UT on 08 Oct.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted monthly
      values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20-40% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15-30% at times over the UT day.


09 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%. 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 5-15% at times, otherwise near predicted 
      monthly values.


10 Oct 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20-30% first half of the UT day.
      Near predicted monthly values later. 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 10-30% at times.


 
2. FORECAST (11 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER)
Solar: Low to moderate

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with active intervals possible. 
	      Sustained periods of moderately southward IMF Bz have 
	      been observed over the past week. Isolated active 
	      periods possible 15-17 Oct.

Frequencies:  SWFs possible mid to high latitudes while IMF Bz remains
	      southward. Otherwise MUFs normal to enhanced. 

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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