[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (15 November 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 15 NOVEMBER 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (08 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER)
Date     08    09    10    11    12    13    14
10cm    189   191   191   185   178   182   184
AFr       3     3    12    10     9    16 ( 10)
Aaus      6     6    15    16    15    13 ( 11)
T       156   170   168   150   129   114   162

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

08 Nov 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
10 to 20% above predicted monthly values

09 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an M4/2B at 1323UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
A weak (11nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 1850UT on 09
Nov.
Frequencies:  
10 to 20% above predicted monthly values

10 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/2N at 0321UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 09 11 2002 1950UT and Ended 11 11 2002 0600UT.

11 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/1N at 0733UT, and an M1/1N at 1620UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
A weak (22nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 1231UT on 11
Nov.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 5-15%.

12 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/1N at 1856UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
A weak (11nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 0253UT on 12
Nov.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to slightly depressed.

13 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
A weak (15nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 0107UT on 13
Nov.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25-35%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an   M1.0 at 0017UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-45%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
 
2. FORECAST (15 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER)
Solar: Moderate, chance for high activity due to possibly
active region rotating onto disk (north east limb), and from 
on-disk regions 191,192 and 195.
Geomagnetic:  Active to minor storm 16 Nov due to coronal hole, 
otherwise quiet to unsettled. Further active periods 20-21 Nov.
Frequencies:  depressed 15 to 20% on 16-17Nov, depressed 15 to 20% on 21-Nov,
southern Aus/NZ region,  otherwise MUFs near normal. SWFs probable.

PEASE NOTE: Chance for CME induced activity this week.

At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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