[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (17 May 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 17 MAY 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (10 MAY - 16 MAY)
Date     10    11    12    13    14    15    16
10cm    191   188   183   172   161   159   158
AFr      19    20    13     9    20     7 ( 10)
Aaus     15    24    13     8    16    11 (  6)
T       157   145   124   129   137   138   129

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

10 May 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
A weak (18nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 1124UT on 10
May.
Frequencies:  
Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced at all
stations.


11 May 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 1132UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
A weak (18nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 1015UT on 11
May.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 10-15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.


12 May 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced 15% to depressed 15% at times.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      15-30% at times.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced 15% to depressed 15% at times.


13 May 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
Mostly near predicted monthly values at all stations.


14 May 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values to depressed
      10-20% at times.


15 May 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 0813UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by greater than 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly depressed 15% at times to enhanced 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly depressed up to 15% at times to near
      predicted monthly values.


16 May 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


COMMENT: Mild solar coronal mass ejection induced disturbances
observed 10,11 May. A mass ejection was observed early in the
UT day on 16 may in association with a C4 flare. A new moderate
to large sized solar region has been reported rotating around the 
north-east limb of the solar disk. Magnetic complexity analysis 
of this region is not possible yet due to regions proximity to limb.
 
2. FORECAST (17 MAY - 23 MAY)
Solar: Moderate, possible increase to high activity depending on 
evolution of new solar region.

Geomagnetic:  Active to minor storm conditions 18-19 May due to C4/CME. 
Otherwise quiet to unsettled.

Frequencies:  mild depression possible after local dawn 19 May, otherwise
MUFs are expected to be 15% enhanced. Increasing chance of shortwave
fadeouts.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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