[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (22 March 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 22 MARCH 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (15 MARCH - 21 MARCH)
Date     15    16    17    18    19    20    21
10cm    176   185   184   178   175   188   174
AFr       3     5     2     9    15     7 (  6)
Aaus      5     5     3    15    18    10 ( 10)
T       171   179   182   186   179   167   167

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

15 Mar 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/1F at 2310UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 25% during local day,
     Enhanced by 40% during local night.
     Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.

16 Mar 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/1F at 2310UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.

17 Mar 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 1019UT, and an M4/SF at 1931UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
15 to 40% above predicted monthly values

18 Mar 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 0231UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
A moderate (56nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 1323UT on
18 Mar.

Frequencies:  
10 to 40% above predicted monthly values

Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1F at 1144UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
slightly above predicted monthly values

20 Mar 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
A sudden impulse was observed in the geomagnetic field at 1329UT.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

21 Mar 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
15 to 30% above predicted monthly values
 
2. FORECAST (22 MARCH - 28 MARCH)
Solar: Low to Moderate
Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet with active intervals possible towards the
end of the week.

Frequencies:  MUFs are mostly expected to be close to be 15 to 30 %
through this week. However, some degradation is expected on 22 and
23 March due to CMEs observed on 20 and 21 March, and due to 
recurrence towards the end of the week. 

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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