[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (01 March 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 01 MARCH 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (22 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY)
Date     22    23    24    25    26    27    28
10cm    192   188   193   211   208   199   204
AFr       6     3     4     4     8     4 (  6)
Aaus      9     5     8    10     9     7 ( 25)
T       152   170   186   174   165   143   157

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

22 Feb 
Solar:        moderate, with an M4/2N at 0010UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 50% during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


23 Feb 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 25% during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


24 Feb 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 45% during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 25% during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
     Enhanced by 50% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


25 Feb 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 25% during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


26 Feb 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Depressed by 60% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 25% during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


27 Feb 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 1558UT.
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced
      greater than 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


28 Feb 
Solar:        moderate, with an  M2/-- at 0012UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
A weak (26nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter
data at 0451UT on 28 Feb, and a weak (14nT) impulse was
observed at 0904UT on 28 Feb.
Frequencies:  
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced at all stations.


 
2. FORECAST (01 MARCH - 07 MARCH)
Solar: Moderate

Geomagnetic: Mostly quiet to unsettled with possible active preiods.

Frequencies:  Possible depressions of 10-20% at times for 01 March,
otherwise MUFs near normal to enhanced. SWFs probable early in week.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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