[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (26 July 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 26 JULY 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (19 JULY - 25 JULY)
Date     19    20    21    22    23    24    25
10cm    182   185   183   190   198   208   218
AFr       9    13    17    12    11     8 ( 12)
Aaus      8    17    14    15    10     6 (  9)
T        88   112   106   122   104   107   111

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

19 Jul 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed 10-15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.

20 Jul 
Solar:        high, with an X3.3 at 2130UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


21 Jul 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with some absorbtion
      at times.


22 Jul 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


23 Jul 
Solar:        high, with an X4.8/2B at 0035UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. during local day,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


24 Jul 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Solar:        Moderate with an M1/1F at 1555UT
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 85% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


25 Jul 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Comment:The X4 event was associated with CME. Only a weak shock was
observed in the solar wind at 1258UT on 25 July. No
significant activity followed shock arrival. The solar region
(number 39), that produced X class activity in south-east quadrant of
disk, has been quiet last 2 days, but still has
good flare potential. An M4.7 flare was observed 
just after 00UT on 26 July possibly from solar region 44
near solar region 39.
 
2. FORECAST (26 JULY - 01 AUGUST)
Solar: Moderate, chance of high.

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with active intervals possible,
	      on 26 July. Probable further CME induced disturbances
	      possible this week.

Frequencies:  MUFs near normal. SWFs probable.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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