[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (05 July 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 05 JULY 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (28 JUNE - 04 JULY)
Date     28    29    30    01    02    03    04
10cm    137   143   147   147   149   173   146
AFr       2     5    12    13     4     3 (  4)
Aaus      1     4    11    11     4     5 (  2)
T       103   100   107   108   103   103   108

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

28 Jun 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day
      with some periods of depressions.

29 Jun 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day with periods
      of depressions upto 20%.

30 Jun 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day with 
      periods of depressions upto 20%.

01 Jul 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

02 Jul 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 2031UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of enhancements upto 25% and
      depressions upto 35% (approx.).

03 Jul 
Solar:        high, with an X1.5/1B at 0213UT, an M1 at 1945UT, and an M5.3/1N
at 2010UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      otherwise enhanced greater than 20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced greater than 20%.

04 Jul 
Solar:        moderate, with an  M1/SF at 0734UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

2. FORECAST (05 JULY - 11 JULY)
Solar: Moderate
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to active 05 July due to possible arrival
	      of weak CME. Active 07-08 July due to coronal hole.
	      Otherwise unsettled.
Frequencies:  mildy depressed after local dawn on 07 and 08 Jul, 
              otherwise MUFs near normal. SWFs probable early in week.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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