[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (01 February 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 01 FEBRUARY 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (25 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY)
Date     25    26    27    28    29    30    31
10cm    235   240   248   260   261   256   243
AFr       6     6     4     6     2     1 (  6)
Aaus     16    10    10     9     7     4 (  7)
T       154   132   146   142   143   143   144

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

25 Jan 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Mildly depressed after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Some absorption observed.


26 Jan 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 2005UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% to Near predicted monthly values 
      during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


27 Jan 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Some absorption observed late in UT day.


28 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


29 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


30 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced at all stations.


31 Jan 
Solar:        moderate, with an   M3.6 at 1444UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
Near predicted monthly values at all stations.


 
2. FORECAST (01 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY)
Solar: Low to moderate

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet to unsettled with active intervals possible
for 1 Feb.

Frequencies:  Possible slight depressions for 01-Feb, otherwise MUFs
near normal. SWFs possible early in week.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060