[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (27 December 02)
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 27 11:51:18 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED ON 27 DECEMBER 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SUMMARY (20 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER)
Date 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
10cm 197 184 172 159 147 132 127
AFr 12 12 9 12 14 10 ( 10)
Aaus 12 22 17 22 16 10 ( 14)
T 97 122 155 134 102 109 138
Solar: Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic: Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies: Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies
20 Dec
Solar: high, with an M6.8/SF at 1318UT
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Active
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
21 Dec
Solar: very low
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Major Storm
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
No data.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
22 Dec
Solar: moderate, with an M1/2F at 0252UT
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Active
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
23 Dec
Solar: low
Geomagnetic: Unsettled to Active
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15-20%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20-30%.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Some spread F observed.
24 Dec
Solar: very low
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Active
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed 15% first half of the UT day in S. Aus
region.
Remainder near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
25 Dec
Solar: very low
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Unsettled
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
26 Dec
Solar: low
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Active
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced 5-15% over the UT day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Periods of strong absorption, otherwise near predicted
monthly values over the UT day.
2. FORECAST (27 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY)
Solar: Low
Geomagnetic: Mostly quiet to unsettled with active periods possible
Dec 27-29 due to a large equatorial coronal hole.
Frequencies: depressed 5 to 15% at high latitudes on 27-Dec to 29-Dec,
depressed 15% briefly after local dawn on 30-Dec, otherwise MUFs
near normal. No SWFs.
PEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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