[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (26 April 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 26 APRIL 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (19 APRIL - 25 APRIL)
Date     19    20    21    22    23    24    25
10cm    180   177   173   170   175   177   167
AFr      36    30     4     8    21     6 (  6)
Aaus     40    29     7    10    22     8 (  3)
T       138   113   103   125   121   126   127

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

19 Apr 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Active to Minor Storm 
A weak (23nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 0836UT on 19
Apr.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      'Normal' to 'degraded upto 40%' over the UT day.


20 Apr 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Major Storm 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.


21 Apr 
Solar:        high, with an X1.5/1F at 0151UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


22 Apr 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


23 Apr 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
A moderate (64nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 0449UT on
23 Apr.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


24 Apr 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1F at 2156UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


25 Apr 
Solar:        moderate, with an  M1/1F at 2156UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 65% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


 
2. FORECAST (26 APRIL - 02 MAY)
Solar: Moderate to high

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet with Unsettled to Active intervals possible.

Frequencies:  Near predicted monthly values. SWFs possible.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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