[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (19 April 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 19 APRIL 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (12 APRIL - 18 APRIL)
Date     12    13    14    15    16    17    18
10cm    212   226   210   203   196   194   188
AFr      14    10     8     3     5    27 ( 45)
Aaus     12    11    11     5     6    27 ( 32)
T       162   160   161   156   151   142   142

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

12 Apr 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 1310UT, and an M4/1F at 1802UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.

13 Apr 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.

14 Apr 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1F at 0351UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.

15 Apr 
Solar:        moderate, with an M3/SF at 0014UT, an M1/SF at 0355UT, and an M1
at 2324UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

16 Apr 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/SF at 1319UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

17 Apr 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/2N at 0824UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
A moderate (63nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 1107UT on
17 Apr.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

18 Apr 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Active to Minor Storm 
A weak (25nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 1139UT on 18
Apr.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Degraded upto 20% to enhanced upto nearly 20%.
      Proton event ended.

2. FORECAST (19 APRIL - 25 APRIL)
Solar: Moderate
Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet with Minor storm intervals possible.
Frequencies:  depressed 10% on 19-Apr, depressed 5% to near predicted
monthly values on 20-Apr,  otherwise
MUFs near normal. SWFs probable early in week.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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