[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (26 October 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 26 OCTOBER 2001, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (19 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER)
Date     19    20    21    22    23    24    25
10cm    248   245   224   233   226   239   239
AFr       6     8    29    33    10     4 (  6)
Aaus     12    11    41    61    16     2 (  9)
T       175   155   144    80   128   180   190

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

19 Oct 
Solar:        high, with an X1.6/2B at 0105UT, an M1 at 0232UT,
	   an M1/SF at 0258UT, an M1/SF at 0645UT, an M5.7/1B at 0943UT,
	   an X1.6/2B at 1630UT, and an M3/1F at 2325UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 45% during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 25% during local day,
     Enhanced by 45% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 55% over the UT day.


20 Oct 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 45% during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
     Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


21 Oct 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 0518UT, and an M2/2N at 1136UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Severe Storm Levels 
A moderate (52nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data
at 1648UT on 21 Oct.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 55% during local night.
     Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
     Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


22 Oct 
Solar:      high, with an M1/SF at 0040UT, an M6.7/2N at 1508UT,
	    and an X1.2/2B at 1759UT
Geomagnetic:  Storm levels 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Depressed by 35% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
     Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Depressed by 15% over the UT day.


23 Oct 
Solar:        high, with an M1/SN at 0023UT, and an M6.5/1B at 0223UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


24 Oct 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced greater than 15%.


25 Oct 
Solar:        high, with an  X1/3B at 1502UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
Mostly normal to enhanced.


 
2. FORECAST (26 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER)
Solar: Moderate

Geomagnetic:
            26 Oct: Quiet to unsettled
	    27-28 Oct: Storm levels late 27 to 28 Oct.
	    29: Unsettled to active.
	    30 Oct - 1 Nov: Unsettled to quiet.

Frequencies: 
            26-27 Oct: Mostly normal to enhanced.
	    28-29 Oct: Depressed 15-30% at times.
	    30 Oct - 1 Nov: Returning to near normal.
SWFs probable for most of the week.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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