[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (23 March 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 23 MARCH 2001, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (16 MARCH - 22 MARCH)
Date     16    17    18    19    20    21    22
10cm    140   134   140   147   153   159   183
AFr       1     2     5    19    27     7 ( 15)
Aaus      2     3     5    23    50     7 ( 10)
T       147   145   155   153    92    99   151

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

16 Mar 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


17 Mar 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


18 Mar 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


19 Mar 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


20 Mar 
Solar:        high, with an M1/SF at 0218UT, an M1/SF at 0333UT,
           an M1/SF at 1424UT, an M1/1F at 1507UT, and an M1 at 2104UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Severe Storm Levels 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.


21 Mar 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 0218UT, and an M1/SN at 0237UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      otherwise enhanced by 20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly depressed by 30% during local night,
      otherwise mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.


22 Mar 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1.0 at 0515UT, an M1.6 at 0822UT,
              and an M1.1 at 1320UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% at times.


 
2. FORECAST (23 MARCH - 29 MARCH)
Solar: Low to moderate.

Geomagnetic: Unsettled to active with possible minor storm periods
             for first half of forecast period, then mostly quiet
	     to unsettled for remainder of forecast period.

Frequencies: Mostly normal for entire forecast period with possible
	     depressions of 10-20% during first half of week.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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