[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (26 Januray 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 26 JANUARY 2001, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (19 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY)
Date     19    20    21    22    23    24    25
10cm    153   153   152   162   167   173   169
AFr       3     6    12     8     7    12 (  7)
Aaus      4     9    16    12    16    15 (  6)
T       147   161   152    83   104   108   110

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

19 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

20 Jan 
Solar:        high, with an M1/2F at 1847UT, and an M7.7/2B at 2120UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

21 Jan 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 2312UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
              Active periods believed due to solar sector
              boundary crossing. Solar sectors are large scale
              magnetic structures in the solar wind. Crossing
              from one sector to another can be associated with
              mild geomagnetic activity.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

22 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15 to 30% over the UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 5 to 15% over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

23 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
              Shock observed 1006UT from CME/flare activity 20 Jan.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

24 Jan 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/2F at 1447UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
              Active perioids followed shock.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Some absorption and spread F observed.

25 Jan 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

2. FORECAST (26 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY)
Solar:        Low to moderate. Isolated M flares towrd end of week.

Geomagnetic:  Quiet conditions. Recurrence suggests chance of active
	      periods 31 Jan.

Frequencies:  Near normal.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060