[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (03 November 00)

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 03 NOVEMBER 2000, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (27 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER)
Date     27    28    29    30    31    01    02
10cm    176   182   187   194   193   204   196
AFr       3    17    24    13     8     4 (  5)
Aaus      2    18    19    10    11     7 (  3)
T       155   148   134   150   142   152   175

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

27 Oct 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 2056UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern, Southern Australian and New Zealand Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


28 Oct 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 1849UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern, Southern Australian and New Zealand Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


29 Oct 
Solar:        moderate, with an M4/2B at 0157UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.


30 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


31 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 5 to 10% after local dawn,
      Mostly near predicted monthly values during loval night,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.


01 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Spread F observed local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


02 Nov 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20 to 30% 4UT to 14UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


 
2. FORECAST (03 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER)
Solar:       Moderate. A group of solar regions in the north 
             east quadrant of the solar disk are showing growth
             and flare potential at this stage is increasing,
             though no flares at time of issue of this report.
             Short wave fadeout may be experienced as week
             progresses and if regions continue to evolve.

Geomagnetic: Active with chance of minor storm late 04 Nov 
             to 05 Nov due to recent coronal mass ejections. 
             Mild coronal hole induced activity 06 Nov. Quiet 
             to unsettled to 09 Nov, then a coronal hole 
             induced activity expected.

Frequencies: Mild degradation in HF conditions mid to high latitudes
             lat 04-05 Nov. Mostly, near normal until 09 Nov then
             further degradation expected for mid to high latitudes.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.


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