[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (29 December 00)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 29 DECEMBER 2000, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (22 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER)
Date     22    23    24    25    26    27    28
10cm    190   191   193   187   189   188   185
AFr       6    12     4     6     4     7 (  8)
Aaus     10    13    11    12     7    11 (  9)
T       156   148   124   134   132   137   137

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

22 Dec 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


23 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


24 Dec 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 1115UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 10% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


25 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


26 Dec 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 1613UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


27 Dec 
Solar:        moderate, with an M4/1F at 1544UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


28 Dec 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Comment: Mild recurrent activity observed 23 Dec.

 
2. FORECAST (29 DECEMBER - 04 JANUARY)
Solar:        Moderate.
              27 day recurrence suggests that 10.7cm flux 
              values should decline as week progresses. However,
              two solar regions have recently shown some growth.
              If this growth is sustained solar activity may
              increasing against 27 day trends. 

Geomagnetic:  Mild recurrent activity 3-5 Jan. 

Frequencies:  Mostly near normal. Mildly degraded local night
              at high latitudes 3-5 Jan.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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