[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (01 December 00)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 01 DECEMBER 2000, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (24 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER)
Date     24    25    26    27    28    29    30
10cm    197   202   202   192   196   188   192
AFr       9     4    19    27    18    32 (  5)
Aaus     15     5    32    37    23    36 (  6)
T       139   133   148    86   137   106    98

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

24 Nov 
Solar:        high, with an X2.0/3B at 0502UT, an X2.3/2B at 1513UT, and an
X1.8/2N at 2159UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day,
      PCA in propgress after 1520 UT.


25 Nov 
Solar:        high, with an M8.2/2N at 0131UT, an M3/2N at 0920UT, and an
X1.9/2B at 1844UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


26 Nov 
Solar:        high, with an M2/1F at 0308UT, and an X4.0/2B at 1648UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% at the start of the UT day.
      Mask by PCA afterwards.


27 Nov 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Storm levels 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      No data available over the UT day.


28 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Major Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      PCA in progress.


29 Nov 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Major Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Absorption observed.


30 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an  M1/-- at 0925UT , and an  M1/-- at 2038UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region and Northern Region:
      Near predicted monthly values, to 15% depressed,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15-30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Spread F local night hours.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      15% depressed. Absorption observed early in UT day.


 
2. FORECAST (01 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER)
Solar:  Moderate, M flare activty.

Geomagnetic:  active periods possible 03 Dec and 6-8 Dec, 
              otherwise quiet to unsettled (with the exception of
              any CME induced activity). 
              

Frequencies:  Slightly depressed 01 Dec, then MUFs expected to be
              near normal. Chance of mild depression 03 Dec, and 
              07 Dec. Short wave fadeouts expected.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.


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