[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (30 September 26) issued 0345 UT on 30 Sep 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 30 SEPTEMBER 2026 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (23 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
23 Sep   68      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

24 Sep   76      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

25 Sep   64      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

26 Sep   53      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

27 Sep   55      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

28 Sep   49      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

29 Sep   60      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  62

2. FORECAST (30 SEPTEMBER - 06 OCTOBER) 
MUFS: Maximum usable frequencies are expected to be depressed by up to
15% over 02-03 Oct due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Further mild
depressions are possible over 04-05 Oct due to high speed wind stream 
effects from an equatorial coronal hole. MUFs are expected to recover
toward predicted values over 06-07 Oct.

Propagation conditions: 
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be degraded over 02-03 
Oct, primarily at higher latitudes due to anticipated geomagnetic 
activity. Further mild degradations are possible over 04-05 Oct. 
Conditions are expected to be mostly normal on other days.

Short wave fadeouts are not expected over 30-Sep to 06-Oct.

T index: 62

3. OUTLOOK (07 OCTOBER - 06 NOVEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
11-13 Oct,  21-24 Oct,  31-Oct to 01-Nov

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au