From aswfc at bom.gov.au Wed Feb 4 14:18:00 2026 From: aswfc at bom.gov.au (Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre) Date: Wed, 04 Feb 2026 14:18:00 +1100 Subject: [Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (04 February 26) issued 0317 UT on 04 Feb 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL] Message-ID: <6982ba68.cXp3sKmzEW3Q/FQW%aswfc@bom.gov.au> SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT ISSUED ON 04 FEBRUARY 2026 FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST 1. SUMMARY (28 JANUARY - 03 FEBRUARY) Date T index Conditions 28 Jan 110 Normal MUFS: Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Enhanced by 20% after local dawn. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 20% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressed by 25% after local dawn. Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. 29 Jan 76 Normal MUFS: Cocos Island Region: Depressed by 40% during local day. Depressed by 20% during local night. Niue Island Region: Enhanced by 15% during local day. Enhanced by 25% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Depressed by 20% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson): Depressed by 15% over the UT day. 30 Jan 93 Normal MUFS: Cocos Island Region: Enhanced by 25% during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 20% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. 31 Jan 116 Fair-normal MUFS: Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Enhanced by 25% after local dawn. Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. 01 Feb 132 Normal MUFS: Cocos Island Region: Enhanced by 25% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 20% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 30% during local night. Enhanced by 25% after local dawn. Southern Australian Region: Enhanced by 15% during local day. Enhanced by 25% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson): Enhanced by 15% over the UT day. 02 Feb 121 Normal MUFS: Cocos Island Region: Enhanced by 30% during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Enhanced by 30% after local dawn. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Northern Australian Region: Enhanced by 25% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Southern Australian Region: Enhanced by 15% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. 03 Feb 115 Normal MUFS: Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Northern Australian Region: Enhanced by 15% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Southern Australian Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Predicted Monthly T index for February: 88 2. FORECAST (04 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY) MUFS: Generally near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced. Possible depressions on 06-07 Feb due to anticipated geomagnetic activity on 05-06 Feb. Propagation conditions: Mostly normal with the chance of degradations on 06-07 Feb due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts probable throughout the week. T index: 88 ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 2 February and is current for 3-5 Feb. 3. OUTLOOK (11 FEBRUARY - 13 MARCH) Degraded HF propagation conditions possible: 13-14 Feb, 19-20 Feb, 24-25 Feb, 05-07 Mar, 11-13 Mar PLEASE NOTE: Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance, particularly at solar maximum. For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational-> Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms. Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre Bureau of Meteorology ASWFC at bom.gov.au www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au