[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (25 June 25) issued 0049 UT on 25 Jun 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Wed Jun 25 10:49:07 AEST 2025

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 25 JUNE 2025 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (18 JUNE - 24 JUNE)
Date   T index   Conditions        
18 Jun   93      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

19 Jun   87      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 10-20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
      Frequent spread F and sporadic E.

20 Jun   88      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

21 Jun   81      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

22 Jun   79      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

23 Jun   74      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Sporadic E and spread F frequently observed.

24 Jun   74      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June: 109

Comment: MUFs this week were frequently lower than
predicted monthly values for June. Mildly to moderately
degraded HF conditions were experienced during local night 
hours in the southern Australian region. There is currently
no region of significance on the visible solar disk. The 10.7cm
solar radio flux has declined over the past week.

2. FORECAST (25 JUNE - 01 JULY) 
MUFS: Degraded local night HF conditions for the southern
Australian region are expected for 25-26 Jun, and on 28-Jun,
with MUFs briefly depressed after local dawn on 26-Jun and
29-Jun. MUFs near predicted monthly values on other days.

Propagation conditions: Fair on 25-26 Jun and 28-29 Jun. 
Otherwise normal. Shortwave fadeouts are considered less
likely during the first half of the week. Minor shortwave 
fadeouts may become more likely after 29-Jun due to the
possible return of a previously flaring solar region.

T index: 85

3. OUTLOOK (02 JULY - 01 AUGUST)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
04-06Jul,  11 Jul,  21-23 Jul,  25 Jul.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au