[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (22 January 25) issued 0030 UT on 22 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 22 JANUARY 2025 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (15 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
15 Jan  124      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
   

16 Jan  110      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed 15-20% early in UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

17 Jan  108      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

18 Jan  106      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

19 Jan  126      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

20 Jan   96      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20-35%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Hobart and Canberra 15-20% depressed after dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

21 Jan  144      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed 15-20% early in the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January: 119

Comment: MUFs were depressed early and late in the week for 
the southern Australian region due to a mild increase in geomagnetic
activity induced by a broad solar coronal hole. An M3.3 flare and
partially Earth directed CME was observed on 21-Jan.

2. FORECAST (22 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY) 
MUFS: briefly depressed 15% after local dawn on 22-Jan for the
southern Australian region. Near predicted monthly values
23-Jan and 24-Jan. Depressed 15% on 25-Jan for the
southern Australian region due to an anticipated glancing blow 
CME arrival late on 24-Jan associated with an M3 flare on 21-Jan.
MUFs near predicted monthly values on other days.

Propagation conditions: Fair on 22-Jan and 25-Jan for the southern 
Australian region. Otherwise normal. Isolated SWFs possible during the week.

T index: 119
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 21 January 
and is current for 21-23 Jan.

3. OUTLOOK (29 JANUARY - 28 FEBRUARY)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
No significant degraded periods expected.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au