[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (01 January 25) issued 0036 UT on 01 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Jan 1 11:36:36 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 01 JANUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (25 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER)
Date T index Conditions
25 Dec 141 Normal
MUFS:
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
26 Dec 151 Normal-fair
MUFS:
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
27 Dec 164 Normal
MUFS:
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
28 Dec 151 Normal
MUFS:
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
29 Dec 157 Normal
MUFS:
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
30 Dec 134 Normal-fair
MUFS:
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
31 Dec 136 Normal-fair
MUFS:
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 132
2. FORECAST (01 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY)
MUFS:
Expected to be near predicted monthly values to depressed by 15% over 01-02
Jan due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. MUFs are expected to recover to
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced for the rest of the week.
Propagation conditions:
Conditions are expected to be fair-poor over 01-02 Jan due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity, with worse degradations expected at high latitudes.
A recovery towards mostly normal conditions is expected over the rest of the
week.
T index: 114
ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 150 was issued on
29 December and is current for 31 Dec to 2 Jan. ASWFC SWF HF
Communications Warning 151 was issued on 31 December and is current
for 31 Dec to 2 Jan.
3. OUTLOOK (08 JANUARY - 07 FEBRUARY)
No significant degradations are expected for the period of 08-Jan to 07-Feb.
CME impacts will likely negatively impact HF propagation conditions but these
cannot be forecast in the long term.
PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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