[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (01 January 25) issued 0036 UT on 01 Jan 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Jan 1 11:36:36 AEDT 2025


SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 01 JANUARY 2025 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (25 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
25 Dec  141      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

26 Dec  151      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

27 Dec  164      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

28 Dec  151      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

29 Dec  157      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

30 Dec  134      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

31 Dec  136      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December: 132

2. FORECAST (01 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY) 
MUFS: 
Expected to be near predicted monthly values to depressed by 15% over 01-02 
Jan due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. MUFs are expected to recover to
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced for the rest of the week.

Propagation conditions: 
Conditions are expected to be fair-poor over 01-02 Jan due to anticipated 
geomagnetic activity, with worse degradations expected at high latitudes.
A recovery towards mostly normal conditions is expected over the rest of the
week.

T index: 114
ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 150 was issued on 
29 December and is current for 31 Dec to 2 Jan. ASWFC SWF HF 
Communications Warning 151 was issued on 31 December and is current 
for 31 Dec to 2 Jan.

3. OUTLOOK (08 JANUARY - 07 FEBRUARY)
No significant degradations are expected for the period of 08-Jan to 07-Feb. 
CME impacts will likely negatively impact HF propagation conditions but these 
cannot be forecast in the long term.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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