[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (25 September 24) issued 0132 UT on 25 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 25 SEPTEMBER 2024 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (18 SEPTEMBER - 24 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
18 Sep  147      Normal-poor       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

19 Sep  152      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

20 Sep  147      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

21 Sep  145      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

22 Sep  144      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

23 Sep  148      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

24 Sep  148      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September: 117

2. FORECAST (25 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER) 
MUFS: 
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% 
enhanced for the week of 25-Sep to 01-Oct, with a slight 
chance of mild depressions in the southern Australian region
on 25-26 Sep.

Propagation conditions: 
HF propagation conditions are expected to be fair to normal
on 25-26 Sep, with fair conditions most likely at high latitudes. 
Mostly normal conditions are expected for 27-Sep to 01-Oct. 
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.

T index: 117

3. OUTLOOK (02 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
14-16 Oct, 21-24 Oct

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au