[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (02 October 24) issued 0256 UT on 02 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 02 OCTOBER 2024 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (25 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
25 Sep  136      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

26 Sep  120      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

27 Sep  137      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

28 Sep  139      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

29 Sep  145      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

30 Sep  154      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

01 Oct  160      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October: 116

2. FORECAST (02 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER) 
MUFS: MUFs near predicted monthly values.

Propagation conditions: Normal. SWFs probable early in week.

T index: 116
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 109 was issued on 1 October 
and is current for 2-4 Oct.

3. OUTLOOK (09 OCTOBER - 08 NOVEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
22 Oct.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au